Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 12

Maccabi Netanya–Ashdod

2–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 3 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Miriam Stadium, Netanya

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Maccabi NetanyaO. Bilu (assist: Matheus Davó)
44'Maccabi NetanyaMatheus Davó (penalty)
73'AshdodE. Ansah (assist: I. Tamam)
90'AshdodN. Dabush (assist: O. N. Azo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Netanya		Ashdod
15	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	7
11	Shots inside the box	9
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	11
1	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
365	Passes	460
291	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Netanya 1.96 · Ashdod 1.38. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Maccabi Netanya 15 · Ashdod 18; on target 4 and 7.
Ashdod kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

D. Zino→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.7%: “Maccabi Netanya to win”. Second comes “Ashdod to win” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Maccabi Netanya, 1.38 for Ashdod.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 716 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Netanya to win50.7%

Draw23.6%

Ashdod to win25.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Maccabi Netanya lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time37.5%

Ashdod lead at half-time34.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Netanya ahead or level65.4%

12 — not level at half-time62.5%

X2 — level or Ashdod ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 715 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Netanya: at least 12Actual: 13
Ashdod: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

Maccabi Netanya: at least 4Actual: 6
Ashdod: at least 3Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Netanya score1.96

Attack: Maccabi Netanya score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Ashdod's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ashdod score1.38

Attack: Ashdod score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Netanya concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%2–110.3%2–27.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.