Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 12

Bnei Sakhnin–Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 2 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Doha Stadium, Sakhnin

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Ironi Kiryat ShmonaY. Mordechai (assist: A. Ugarriza)
72'Bnei SakhninA. Salman (assist: A. Azugi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bnei Sakhnin		Ironi Kiryat Shmona
9	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
331	Passes	412
236	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bnei Sakhnin 1.14 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.32. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Bnei Sakhnin 9 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 9; on target 1 and 2.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Levi→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win”. Second comes “Bnei Sakhnin to win” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Bnei Sakhnin, 1.32 for Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 712 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bnei Sakhnin to win30.9%

Draw29.2%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona to win39.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Bnei Sakhnin lead at half-time37.2%

Level at half-time42.2%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Bnei Sakhnin ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Ironi Kiryat Shmona ahead62.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 711 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 13Actual: 16
Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Bnei Sakhnin: at least 3Actual: 3
Ironi Kiryat Shmona: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bnei Sakhnin score1.14

Attack: Bnei Sakhnin score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Kiryat Shmona's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ironi Kiryat Shmona score1.32

Attack: Ironi Kiryat Shmona score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bnei Sakhnin's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–110.4%1–29.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.