Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 11

Hapoel Petah Tikva–Maccabi Haifa

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Maccabi HaifaTrivante Stewart · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Petah Tikva 1.17 · Maccabi Haifa 2.19. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

Y. Mizrahi→

5.28

yellows per match

0.41

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.6%: “Maccabi Haifa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, 2.19 for Maccabi Haifa.
The highest double chance value is 81.9% (X2 — draw or Maccabi Haifa win).
These values were computed from 709 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Petah Tikva to win18.1%

Draw21.4%

Maccabi Haifa to win60.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva win or draw39.4%

12 — any result other than a draw78.6%

X2 — draw or Maccabi Haifa win81.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hapoel Petah Tikva lead at half-time32.7%

Level at half-time42.1%

Maccabi Haifa lead at half-time25.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hapoel Petah Tikva ahead or level74.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Maccabi Haifa ahead67.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 708 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 13
Maccabi Haifa: at least 12

Corners

Hapoel Petah Tikva: at least 3
Maccabi Haifa: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 969 of 1,384 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 49.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Petah Tikva score1.17

Attack: Hapoel Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Haifa's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Haifa score2.19

Attack: Maccabi Haifa score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Petah Tikva concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.8%1–19.9%0–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.