Ligat Ha'al · Israel · Regular Season - 11

Maccabi Bnei Raina–Ironi Tiberias

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.5% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Ironi TiberiasI. Shviro (assist: D. Golani)
58'Ironi TiberiasI. Shviro (assist: Sambinha)
90'Ironi TiberiasYonatan Teper (assist: G. Hadida)
90'Maccabi Bnei RainaZe Turbo (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Bnei Raina 1.35 · Ironi Tiberias 1.34. On the pitch: 1-3.

Referee

Y. Klez→

3.43

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “Maccabi Bnei Raina to win”. Second comes “Ironi Tiberias to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Maccabi Bnei Raina, 1.34 for Ironi Tiberias.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 707 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Bnei Raina to win36.2%

Draw28.0%

Ironi Tiberias to win35.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

Maccabi Bnei Raina lead at half-time34.7%

Level at half-time43.3%

Ironi Tiberias lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Maccabi Bnei Raina ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Ironi Tiberias ahead65.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 706 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 12
Ironi Tiberias: at least 12

Corners

Maccabi Bnei Raina: at least 4
Ironi Tiberias: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Bnei Raina score1.35

Attack: Maccabi Bnei Raina score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ironi Tiberias concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ironi Tiberias score1.34

Attack: Ironi Tiberias score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Bnei Raina concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.0%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.