Premier League · Malta · Final
HT 0–0
The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.
Share on X3.37
yellows per match
0.22
reds per match
76
matches of data
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →
When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.7%).
First-half double chance
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 748 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →
The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
Attack: Zabbar St. Patrick score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Tarxien Rainbows concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including home advantage).
Attack: Tarxien Rainbows score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Zabbar St. Patrick's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 748 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 32 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.