Premier League · Malta · Second Stage - Top 6 - 31

Floriana–Hamrun Spartans

1–4

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

7'Hamrun SpartansB. Eleke
23'FlorianaZ. Scerri (penalty)
78'Hamrun SpartansJ. Mbong
86'Hamrun SpartansJ. Mbong
90'Hamrun SpartansM. Carboni

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Floriana 1.11 · Hamrun Spartans 0.99. On the pitch: 1-4.

Referee

I. Barbara→

3.38

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Floriana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Floriana, 0.99 for Hamrun Spartans.
The highest double chance value is 69.3% (1X — Floriana win or draw).
These values were computed from 738 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Floriana to win37.4%

Draw31.9%

Hamrun Spartans to win30.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,563 of 4,188 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Floriana win or draw69.3%

12 — any result other than a draw68.1%

X2 — draw or Hamrun Spartans win62.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (31.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Floriana lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time45.5%

Hamrun Spartans lead at half-time23.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Floriana ahead or level76.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Hamrun Spartans ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 738 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Floriana score1.11

Attack: Floriana score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Hamrun Spartans concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.11 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Hamrun Spartans score0.99

Attack: Hamrun Spartans score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Floriana concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–012.9%0–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.