Premier League · Malta · Second Stage - Play Out - 29
HT 1–0
3.38
yellows per match
0.23
reds per match
73
matches of data
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →
When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.4%).
First-half double chance
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 728 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →
The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
Attack: Mosta score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Zabbar St. Patrick's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).
Attack: Zabbar St. Patrick score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Mosta concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 728 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 60 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.