Premier League · Malta · Second Stage - Top 6 - 28

Marsaxlokk–Hamrun Spartans

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gozo Stadium, Gozo

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Goals and red cards

6'MarsaxlokkOualed El Hasni
34'Hamrun SpartansEmerson (penalty)
45'MarsaxlokkDomantas Šimkus
55'Hamrun SpartansEmerson · red card
73'Hamrun SpartansJ. Mbong
90'MarsaxlokkT. Caruana

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Marsaxlokk 0.81 · Hamrun Spartans 1.31. On the pitch: 3-2.

Referee

I. Barbara→

3.36

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.0%: “Hamrun Spartans to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.81 for Marsaxlokk, 1.31 for Hamrun Spartans.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (X2 — draw or Hamrun Spartans win).
These values were computed from 721 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Marsaxlokk to win21.7%

Draw30.3%

Hamrun Spartans to win48.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Marsaxlokk win or draw52.0%

12 — any result other than a draw69.7%

X2 — draw or Hamrun Spartans win78.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.3%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Marsaxlokk lead at half-time21.8%

Level at half-time46.6%

Hamrun Spartans lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Marsaxlokk ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Hamrun Spartans ahead78.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 721 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Marsaxlokk score0.81

Attack: Marsaxlokk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamrun Spartans concede 52% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamrun Spartans score1.31

Attack: Hamrun Spartans score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Marsaxlokk concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–115.2%1–114.7%0–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.