Premier League · Malta · Second Stage - Main - 26

Hamrun Spartans–Birkirkara

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tony Bezzina Stadium, Paola

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Goals and red cards

7'Hamrun SpartansM. Guillaumier
75'Hamrun SpartansJ. Mbong
78'Hamrun SpartansJ. Mbong (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamrun Spartans 1.57 · Birkirkara 0.58. On the pitch: 3-0.

Referee

I. Barbara→

3.37

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.0%: “Hamrun Spartans to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Hamrun Spartans, 0.58 for Birkirkara.
The highest double chance value is 87.8% (1X — Hamrun Spartans win or draw).
These values were computed from 709 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamrun Spartans to win62.0%

Draw25.8%

Birkirkara to win12.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hamrun Spartans win or draw87.8%

12 — any result other than a draw74.2%

X2 — draw or Birkirkara win38.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hamrun Spartans lead at half-time37.5%

Level at half-time45.7%

Birkirkara lead at half-time16.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hamrun Spartans ahead or level83.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Birkirkara ahead62.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 709 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamrun Spartans score1.57

Attack: Hamrun Spartans score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Birkirkara's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Birkirkara score0.58

Attack: Birkirkara score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamrun Spartans concede 55% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–018.0%2–014.9%1–112.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.