Premier League · Malta · Second Stage - Main - 25

Gzira United–Zabbar St. Patrick

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tony Bezzina Stadium, Paola

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Goals and red cards

20'Gzira UnitedD. Xuereb
89'Zabbar St. PatrickA. Majok
90+2'Zabbar St. PatrickVinicius Paiva · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gzira United 1.34 · Zabbar St. Patrick 1.21. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

I. Barbara→

3.37

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “Gzira United to win”. Second comes “Zabbar St. Patrick to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Gzira United, 1.21 for Zabbar St. Patrick.
The highest double chance value is 71.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 702 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gzira United to win38.7%

Draw28.7%

Zabbar St. Patrick to win32.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Gzira United win or draw67.5%

12 — any result other than a draw71.3%

X2 — draw or Zabbar St. Patrick win61.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Gzira United lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time44.8%

Zabbar St. Patrick lead at half-time30.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Gzira United ahead or level69.7%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Zabbar St. Patrick ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 702 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Goals market

3+ goals47.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gzira United score1.34

Attack: Gzira United score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zabbar St. Patrick's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zabbar St. Patrick score1.21

Attack: Zabbar St. Patrick score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gzira United's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–09.6%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.