Premier League · Malta · Second Stage - Main - 23

Floriana–Marsaxlokk

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 18 February 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Victor Tedesco Stadium, Hamrun

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What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Floriana 1.47 · Marsaxlokk 0.90. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

I. Barbara→

3.39

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “Floriana to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Floriana, 0.90 for Marsaxlokk.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — Floriana win or draw).
These values were computed from 691 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Floriana to win50.1%

Draw28.3%

Marsaxlokk to win21.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Floriana win or draw78.3%

12 — any result other than a draw71.7%

X2 — draw or Marsaxlokk win49.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Floriana lead at half-time38.5%

Level at half-time43.1%

Marsaxlokk lead at half-time18.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Floriana ahead or level81.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Marsaxlokk ahead61.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 691 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (46.0%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Floriana score1.47

Attack: Floriana score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Marsaxlokk concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Marsaxlokk score0.90

Attack: Marsaxlokk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Floriana concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–013.1%2–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.