Bundesliga · Austria · Championship Group - 32

Austria Vienna–Lask Linz

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

38'Lask LinzX. Mbuyamba (assist: S. Kalajdzic)
49'Lask LinzS. Adeniran (penalty)
76'Lask LinzM. Bogarde (assist: S. Kalajdzic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Austria Vienna		Lask Linz
12	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
8	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
416	Passes	331
319	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Austria Vienna 1.39 · Lask Linz 1.53. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Austria Vienna 12 · Lask Linz 10; on target 1 and 5.
Austria Vienna kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Gishamer→

4.58

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Lask Linz to win”. Second comes “Austria Vienna to win” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Austria Vienna, 1.53 for Lask Linz.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 645 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Austria Vienna to win33.3%

Draw26.6%

Lask Linz to win40.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Austria Vienna win or draw59.9%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or Lask Linz win66.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Austria Vienna lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time38.0%

Lask Linz lead at half-time35.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Austria Vienna ahead or level64.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Lask Linz ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 645 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Austria Vienna: at least 10Actual: 7
Lask Linz: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Austria Vienna: at least 5Actual: 8
Lask Linz: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Austria Vienna score1.39

Attack: Austria Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lask Linz's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lask Linz score1.53

Attack: Lask Linz score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Austria Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–29.6%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 645 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 117 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.