Bundesliga · Austria · Championship Group - 31

Rapid Vienna–Austria Vienna

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

9'Austria ViennaS. Saljic (assist: Manfred Fischer)
60'Austria ViennaS. Raux-Yao (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rapid Vienna		Austria Vienna
11	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	5
4	Offsides	4
70%	Possession	30%
601	Passes	249
518	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rapid Vienna 1.38 · Austria Vienna 1.24. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Rapid Vienna 11 · Austria Vienna 7; on target 1 and 4.
Rapid Vienna kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

J. Weinberger→

4.26

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Rapid Vienna to win”. Second comes “Austria Vienna to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Rapid Vienna, 1.24 for Austria Vienna.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 642 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rapid Vienna to win39.2%

Draw28.3%

Austria Vienna to win32.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Rapid Vienna lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time41.4%

Austria Vienna lead at half-time24.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Rapid Vienna ahead or level75.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Austria Vienna ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 642 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rapid Vienna: at least 9Actual: 7
Austria Vienna: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Rapid Vienna: at least 5Actual: 4
Austria Vienna: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rapid Vienna score1.38

Attack: Rapid Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Austria Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Austria Vienna score1.24

Attack: Austria Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rapid Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.4%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.