Bundesliga · Austria · Championship Group - 30

Austria Vienna–TSV Hartberg

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

69'Austria ViennaKelvin Boateng (assist: Philipp Wiesinger)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Austria Vienna		TSV Hartberg
11	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
370	Passes	431
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Austria Vienna 1.65 · TSV Hartberg 0.98. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Austria Vienna 11 · TSV Hartberg 6; on target 4 and 1.

Referee

S. Gishamer→

4.64

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.9%: “Austria Vienna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Austria Vienna, 0.98 for TSV Hartberg.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (1X — Austria Vienna win or draw).
These values were computed from 639 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Austria Vienna to win52.9%

Draw26.2%

TSV Hartberg to win20.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Austria Vienna win or draw79.1%

12 — any result other than a draw73.8%

X2 — draw or TSV Hartberg win47.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Austria Vienna lead at half-time22.0%

Level at half-time42.2%

TSV Hartberg lead at half-time35.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Austria Vienna ahead or level64.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or TSV Hartberg ahead78.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 639 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Austria Vienna: at least 10Actual: 11
TSV Hartberg: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Austria Vienna: at least 6Actual: 6
TSV Hartberg: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Austria Vienna score1.65

Attack: Austria Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: TSV Hartberg's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals TSV Hartberg score0.98

Attack: TSV Hartberg score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Austria Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–011.2%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.