Bundesliga · Austria · Relegation Group - 28

FC BW Linz–Wolfsberger AC

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 21 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion, Linz

Goals and red cards

29'FC BW LinzS. Weissman
66'FC BW LinzN. Maier
90'FC BW LinzN. Maier

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC BW Linz		Wolfsberger AC
11	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
40%	Possession	60%
327	Passes	480
210	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC BW Linz 1.23 · Wolfsberger AC 1.39. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots FC BW Linz 11 · Wolfsberger AC 13; on target 4 and 1.
Wolfsberger AC kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

S. Gishamer→

4.64

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.5%: “Wolfsberger AC to win”. Second comes “FC BW Linz to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for FC BW Linz, 1.39 for Wolfsberger AC.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 633 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC BW Linz to win32.2%

Draw28.2%

Wolfsberger AC to win39.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC BW Linz lead at half-time17.6%

Level at half-time40.5%

Wolfsberger AC lead at half-time41.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FC BW Linz ahead or level58.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Wolfsberger AC ahead82.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 633 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC BW Linz: at least 11Actual: 15
Wolfsberger AC: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

FC BW Linz: at least 4Actual: 5
Wolfsberger AC: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC BW Linz score1.23

Attack: FC BW Linz score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Wolfsberger AC's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wolfsberger AC score1.39

Attack: Wolfsberger AC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC BW Linz's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–29.4%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.