Bundesliga · Austria · Championship Group - 27

TSV Hartberg–Rapid Vienna

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

45'TSV HartbergLukas Spendlhofer
47'Rapid ViennaBendegúz Bolla (assist: M. Seidl)
52'TSV HartbergL. Pazourek
67'Rapid ViennaPetter Nosakhare Dahl

Match statistics

Match statistics
TSV Hartberg		Rapid Vienna
10	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
32%	Possession	68%
272	Passes	569
208	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: TSV Hartberg 1.09 · Rapid Vienna 1.30. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots TSV Hartberg 10 · Rapid Vienna 19; on target 4 and 4.
Rapid Vienna kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

J. Weinberger→

4.26

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.6%: “Rapid Vienna to win”. Second comes “TSV Hartberg to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for TSV Hartberg, 1.30 for Rapid Vienna.
The highest double chance value is 70.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 630 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

TSV Hartberg to win29.8%

Draw29.6%

Rapid Vienna to win40.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

TSV Hartberg lead at half-time34.5%

Level at half-time45.9%

Rapid Vienna lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — TSV Hartberg ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Rapid Vienna ahead65.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 630 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

TSV Hartberg: at least 11Actual: 14
Rapid Vienna: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

TSV Hartberg: at least 3Actual: 4
Rapid Vienna: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals TSV Hartberg score1.09

Attack: TSV Hartberg score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rapid Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rapid Vienna score1.30

Attack: Rapid Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: TSV Hartberg's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–111.1%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.