Bundesliga · Austria · Relegation Group - 26

Wolfsberger AC–Ried

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Lavanttal-Arena, Wolfsberg

Match statistics

Match statistics
Wolfsberger AC		Ried
11	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
39%	Possession	61%
291	Passes	470
209	Accurate passes	394
9

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Wolfsberger AC 1.48 · Ried 1.27. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Wolfsberger AC 11 · Ried 8; on target 2 and 4.
Ried kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

J. Weinberger→

4.29

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Wolfsberger AC to win”. Second comes “Ried to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Wolfsberger AC, 1.27 for Ried.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 628 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wolfsberger AC to win41.3%

Draw27.4%

Ried to win31.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Wolfsberger AC lead at half-time40.7%

Level at half-time41.5%

Ried lead at half-time17.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Wolfsberger AC ahead or level82.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Ried ahead59.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 628 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Wolfsberger AC: at least 9Actual: 9
Ried: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Wolfsberger AC: at least 4Actual: 7
Ried: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Wolfsberger AC score1.48

Attack: Wolfsberger AC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ried's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ried score1.27

Attack: Ried score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wolfsberger AC's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.7%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.