Bundesliga · Austria · Relegation Group - 25

WSG Wattens–Wolfsberger AC

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Innsbruck

Goals and red cards

9'Wolfsberger ACJ. Ngankam (assist: D. Zukic)
59'WSG WattensV. Muller (penalty)
77'WSG WattensA. Ola-Adebomi (assist: V. Muller)
90'WSG WattensM. Wels (assist: L. Sulzbacher)

Match statistics

Match statistics
WSG Wattens		Wolfsberger AC
20	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
363	Passes	418
292	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: WSG Wattens 1.36 · Wolfsberger AC 1.23. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots WSG Wattens 20 · Wolfsberger AC 8; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

A. Harkam→

3.67

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.0%: “WSG Wattens to win”. Second comes “Wolfsberger AC to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for WSG Wattens, 1.23 for Wolfsberger AC.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 624 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

WSG Wattens to win39.0%

Draw28.4%

Wolfsberger AC to win32.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

WSG Wattens lead at half-time22.5%

Level at half-time41.4%

Wolfsberger AC lead at half-time36.1%

First-half double chance

1X — WSG Wattens ahead or level63.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Wolfsberger AC ahead77.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 624 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

WSG Wattens: at least 10Actual: 8
Wolfsberger AC: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

WSG Wattens: at least 4Actual: 5
Wolfsberger AC: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals WSG Wattens score1.36

Attack: WSG Wattens score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wolfsberger AC's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wolfsberger AC score1.23

Attack: Wolfsberger AC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: WSG Wattens's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%2–19.3%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.