Bundesliga · Austria · Regular Season - 22

Ried–Austria Vienna

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

56'Austria ViennaA. Barry
73'Austria ViennaA. Dragovic (assist: Lee Tae-seok)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ried		Austria Vienna
12	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	7
0	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
352	Passes	322
262	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ried 1.34 · Austria Vienna 1.32. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Ried 12 · Austria Vienna 11; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

A. Harkam→

3.66

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.5%: “Ried to win”. Second comes “Austria Vienna to win” at 35.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Ried, 1.32 for Austria Vienna.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 612 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ried to win36.5%

Draw28.1%

Austria Vienna to win35.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Ried win or draw64.6%

12 — any result other than a draw71.9%

X2 — draw or Austria Vienna win63.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ried lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time41.0%

Austria Vienna lead at half-time29.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Ried ahead or level71.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Austria Vienna ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 612 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ried: at least 10Actual: 6
Austria Vienna: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Ried: at least 4Actual: 4
Austria Vienna: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ried score1.34

Attack: Ried score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Austria Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Austria Vienna score1.32

Attack: Austria Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ried's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.0%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.