Bundesliga · Austria · Regular Season - 20

Lask Linz–Red Bull Salzburg

1–5

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Raiffeisen Arena, Linz

Goals and red cards

6'Red Bull SalzburgKerim-Sam Alajbegović (assist: S. Lainer)
10'Red Bull SalzburgK. Konaté (assist: F. Krätzig)
18'Lask LinzS. Kalajdzic (assist: C. Lang)
37'Red Bull SalzburgS. Kitano (assist: Kerim-Sam Alajbegović)
64'Red Bull SalzburgK. Konaté (assist: F. Krätzig)
90'Red Bull SalzburgD. Redzic (assist: K. Onisiwo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lask Linz		Red Bull Salzburg
13	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	12
10	Shots inside the box	12
7	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	8
2	Offsides	1
35%	Possession	65%
248	Passes	505
172	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lask Linz 1.47 · Red Bull Salzburg 1.51. On the pitch: 1-5.
Shots Lask Linz 13 · Red Bull Salzburg 17; on target 4 and 12.
Red Bull Salzburg kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

A. Harkam→

3.72

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Red Bull Salzburg to win”. Second comes “Lask Linz to win” at 35.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Lask Linz, 1.51 for Red Bull Salzburg.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 605 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lask Linz to win35.9%

Draw26.4%

Red Bull Salzburg to win37.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Lask Linz lead at half-time21.4%

Level at half-time38.8%

Red Bull Salzburg lead at half-time39.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Lask Linz ahead or level60.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Red Bull Salzburg ahead78.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 605 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lask Linz: at least 9Actual: 9
Red Bull Salzburg: at least 9Actual: 9

Corners

Lask Linz: at least 4Actual: 4
Red Bull Salzburg: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lask Linz score1.47

Attack: Lask Linz score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Red Bull Salzburg's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Red Bull Salzburg score1.51

Attack: Red Bull Salzburg score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Lask Linz's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–29.3%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.