Bundesliga · Austria · Regular Season - 16

Sturm Graz–Grazer AK

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merkur-Arena, Graz

Goals and red cards

7'Sturm GrazJ. Mitchell (assist: T. Horvat)
66'Sturm GrazM. Malone (assist: F. Rozga)
90'Grazer AKC. Lichtenberger (assist: T. Cipot)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sturm Graz		Grazer AK
15	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	5
1	Offsides	4
46%	Possession	54%
296	Passes	357
191	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sturm Graz 1.95 · Grazer AK 0.89. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sturm Graz 15 · Grazer AK 8; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

J. Weinberger→

4.28

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.3%: “Sturm Graz to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for Sturm Graz, 0.89 for Grazer AK.
The highest double chance value is 84.9% (1X — Sturm Graz win or draw).
These values were computed from 581 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sturm Graz to win62.3%

Draw22.6%

Grazer AK to win15.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sturm Graz lead at half-time49.9%

Level at half-time38.8%

Grazer AK lead at half-time11.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sturm Graz ahead or level88.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Grazer AK ahead50.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 581 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sturm Graz: at least 10Actual: 17
Grazer AK: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Sturm Graz: at least 5Actual: 8
Grazer AK: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sturm Graz score1.95

Attack: Sturm Graz score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Grazer AK's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Grazer AK score0.89

Attack: Grazer AK score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sturm Graz's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–011.4%2–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.