Bundesliga · Austria · Regular Season - 14

FC BW Linz–Austria Vienna

2–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion, Linz

Goals and red cards

13'Austria ViennaM. Sarkaria (assist: Lee Tae-seok)
20'FC BW LinzSimon Seidl
45'Austria ViennaJ. Eggestein (penalty)
52'Austria ViennaM. Sarkaria (assist: Lee Tae-seok)
76'FC BW LinzSimon Seidl (assist: S. Pirkl)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC BW Linz		Austria Vienna
14	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	9
3	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
368	Passes	458
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC BW Linz 1.10 · Austria Vienna 1.48. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots FC BW Linz 14 · Austria Vienna 9; on target 7 and 4.
Austria Vienna kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Harkam→

3.76

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.4%: “Austria Vienna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for FC BW Linz, 1.48 for Austria Vienna.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (X2 — draw or Austria Vienna win).
These values were computed from 563 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC BW Linz to win26.7%

Draw27.9%

Austria Vienna to win45.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

FC BW Linz lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time45.0%

Austria Vienna lead at half-time27.1%

First-half double chance

1X — FC BW Linz ahead or level72.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Austria Vienna ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 563 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC BW Linz: at least 11Actual: 7
Austria Vienna: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

FC BW Linz: at least 3Actual: 5
Austria Vienna: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC BW Linz score1.10

Attack: FC BW Linz score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Austria Vienna's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Austria Vienna score1.48

Attack: Austria Vienna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC BW Linz's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–110.4%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.