Bundesliga · Austria · Regular Season - 12

Wolfsberger AC–WSG Wattens

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberg

Match statistics

Match statistics
Wolfsberger AC		WSG Wattens
8	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
528	Passes	338
415	Accurate passes	250
10

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Wolfsberger AC 1.98 · WSG Wattens 0.78. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Wolfsberger AC 8 · WSG Wattens 16; on target 2 and 3.
Wolfsberger AC kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

A. Harkam→

3.80

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.8%: “Wolfsberger AC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for Wolfsberger AC, 0.78 for WSG Wattens.
The highest double chance value is 87.4% (1X — Wolfsberger AC win or draw).
These values were computed from 554 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Wolfsberger AC to win65.8%

Draw21.7%

WSG Wattens to win12.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Wolfsberger AC lead at half-time46.0%

Level at half-time38.4%

WSG Wattens lead at half-time15.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Wolfsberger AC ahead or level84.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or WSG Wattens ahead54.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 554 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Wolfsberger AC: at least 10Actual: 10
WSG Wattens: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Wolfsberger AC: at least 5Actual: 5
WSG Wattens: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Wolfsberger AC score1.98

Attack: Wolfsberger AC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: WSG Wattens concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals WSG Wattens score0.78

Attack: WSG Wattens score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Wolfsberger AC concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.7%1–011.8%1–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.