1. Division · Cyprus · Championship Group - 36

Omonia Nicosia–Apollon Limassol

5–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 22 May 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Omonia NicosiaStefan Simic
34'Apollon LimassolP. Marques
54'Omonia NicosiaA. Chatzigiovanis
64'Omonia NicosiaEwandro Costa
71'Apollon LimassolGustavo Assunção
76'Omonia NicosiaR. Mmaee
90'

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Nicosia 1.98 · Apollon Limassol 0.72. On the pitch: 5-2.

Referee

I. Christodoulou→

4.97

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.5%: “Omonia Nicosia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for Omonia Nicosia, 0.72 for Apollon Limassol.
The highest double chance value is 88.7% (1X — Omonia Nicosia win or draw).
These values were computed from 842 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Nicosia to win67.5%

Draw21.2%

Apollon Limassol to win11.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,092 of 1,602 predictions were correct (68.2%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–1

Omonia Nicosia lead at half-time54.2%

Level at half-time36.3%

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time9.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Nicosia ahead or level90.5%

12 — not level at half-time63.7%

X2 — level or Apollon Limassol ahead45.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 841 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Nicosia: at least 11
Apollon Limassol: at least 12

Corners

Omonia Nicosia: at least 4
Apollon Limassol: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Nicosia score1.98

Attack: Omonia Nicosia score 72% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.98 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Apollon Limassol score0.72

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Omonia Nicosia concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.6%1–012.6%1–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.