1. Division · Cyprus · Championship Group - 32

Apoel Nicosia–AEK Larnaca

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

67'Apoel NicosiaDiego Rosa

Match statistics

Match statistics
Apoel Nicosia		AEK Larnaca
10	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
245	Passes	423
196	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Apoel Nicosia 1.28 · AEK Larnaca 1.25. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Apoel Nicosia 10 · AEK Larnaca 9; on target 4 and 4.
AEK Larnaca kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

E. Malcevs→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.2%: “Apoel Nicosia to win”. Second comes “AEK Larnaca to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Apoel Nicosia, 1.25 for AEK Larnaca.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 831 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Apoel Nicosia to win36.2%

Draw28.9%

AEK Larnaca to win34.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

5	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Apoel Nicosia lead at half-time22.4%

Level at half-time44.5%

AEK Larnaca lead at half-time33.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Apoel Nicosia ahead or level67.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or AEK Larnaca ahead77.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 830 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Apoel Nicosia: at least 13Actual: 11
AEK Larnaca: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Apoel Nicosia: at least 5Actual: 7
AEK Larnaca: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Apoel Nicosia score1.28

Attack: Apoel Nicosia score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEK Larnaca score1.25

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Apoel Nicosia concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.3%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.