1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Group - 31

Krasava Ypsonas–AEL

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

54'AELSergio Conceicao (penalty)
84'Krasava YpsonasM. Do Couto

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Krasava Ypsonas 1.49 · AEL 1.02. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

C. Konstantinos→

2.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “Krasava Ypsonas to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Krasava Ypsonas, 1.02 for AEL.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (1X — Krasava Ypsonas win or draw).
These values were computed from 830 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Krasava Ypsonas to win47.8%

Draw27.9%

AEL to win24.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Krasava Ypsonas win or draw75.6%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or AEL win52.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Krasava Ypsonas lead at half-time25.6%

Level at half-time46.8%

AEL lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Krasava Ypsonas ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or AEL ahead74.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 829 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Krasava Ypsonas: at least 14
AEL: at least 12

Corners

Krasava Ypsonas: at least 4
AEL: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Krasava Ypsonas score1.49

Attack: Krasava Ypsonas score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEL's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEL score1.02

Attack: AEL score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Krasava Ypsonas's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–011.4%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.