1. Division · Cyprus · Championship Group - 31

Apoel Nicosia–Pafos

3–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

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What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Apoel Nicosia 1.40 · Pafos 1.22. On the pitch: 3-3.

Referee

I. Pajac→

0.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Apoel Nicosia to win”. Second comes “Pafos to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Apoel Nicosia, 1.22 for Pafos.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 828 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Apoel Nicosia to win40.2%

Draw28.2%

Pafos to win31.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,779 of 4,000 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Apoel Nicosia win or draw68.4%

12 — any result other than a draw71.8%

X2 — draw or Pafos win59.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.2%).

First half

Actual: 2–1

Apoel Nicosia lead at half-time20.4%

Level at half-time45.9%

Pafos lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Apoel Nicosia ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Pafos ahead79.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 827 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Apoel Nicosia: at least 11
Pafos: at least 14

Corners

Apoel Nicosia: at least 4
Pafos: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,462 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Apoel Nicosia score1.40

Attack: Apoel Nicosia score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pafos score1.22

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Apoel Nicosia concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.22 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.5%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.