1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Group - 29

Anorthosis–Omonia Aradippou

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

21'Omonia AradippouS. Lomonaco
34'AnorthosisA. Chrysostomou
90'Omonia AradippouMinas Antoniou · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anorthosis 1.27 · Omonia Aradippou 0.97. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

N. Liotatis→

3.33

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Anorthosis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Anorthosis, 0.97 for Omonia Aradippou.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (1X — Anorthosis win or draw).
These values were computed from 827 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anorthosis to win42.4%

Draw30.4%

Omonia Aradippou to win27.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Anorthosis win or draw72.8%

12 — any result other than a draw69.6%

X2 — draw or Omonia Aradippou win57.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Anorthosis lead at half-time34.2%

Level at half-time46.4%

Omonia Aradippou lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Anorthosis ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Omonia Aradippou ahead65.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 826 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Anorthosis: at least 12
Omonia Aradippou: at least 15

Corners

Anorthosis: at least 4
Omonia Aradippou: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anorthosis score1.27

Attack: Anorthosis score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Omonia Aradippou's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Omonia Aradippou score0.97

Attack: Omonia Aradippou score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Anorthosis's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.8%0–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.