1. Division · Cyprus · Championship Group - 30

Omonia Nicosia–Apoel Nicosia

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Omonia NicosiaR. Mmaee
12'Omonia NicosiaEwandro Costa

Match statistics

Match statistics
Omonia Nicosia		Apoel Nicosia
10	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	2
2	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	9
1	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
395	Passes	407
334	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Nicosia 1.98 · Apoel Nicosia 0.80. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Omonia Nicosia 10 · Apoel Nicosia 6; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

L. Kuzma→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.5%: “Omonia Nicosia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for Omonia Nicosia, 0.80 for Apoel Nicosia.
The highest double chance value is 87.2% (1X — Omonia Nicosia win or draw).
These values were computed from 824 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Nicosia to win65.5%

Draw21.7%

Apoel Nicosia to win12.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Omonia Nicosia lead at half-time50.6%

Level at half-time39.6%

Apoel Nicosia lead at half-time9.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Nicosia ahead or level90.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Apoel Nicosia ahead49.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 823 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Nicosia: at least 12Actual: 12
Apoel Nicosia: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Omonia Nicosia: at least 4Actual: 4
Apoel Nicosia: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Nicosia score1.98

Attack: Omonia Nicosia score 73% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Apoel Nicosia concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Apoel Nicosia score0.80

Attack: Apoel Nicosia score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Omonia Nicosia concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.5%1–011.6%1–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.