1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Group - 29

AEL–Enosis

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 17 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi

Goals and red cards

81'AELL. Singh (penalty)
89'AELA. Makris (penalty)
90'EnosisA. Ella

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEL		Enosis
15	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
9	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
65%	Possession	35%
423	Passes	208
356	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEL 2.17 · Enosis 0.43. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots AEL 15 · Enosis 4; on target 3 and 1.
AEL kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

A. Konstantinidis→

4.69

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.8%: “AEL to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.17 for AEL, 0.43 for Enosis.
The highest double chance value is 95.0% (1X — AEL win or draw).
These values were computed from 824 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEL to win78.8%

Draw16.2%

Enosis to win5.0%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 774 of 960 predictions were correct (80.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

AEL lead at half-time50.2%

Level at half-time41.2%

Enosis lead at half-time8.6%

First-half double chance

1X — AEL ahead or level91.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Enosis ahead49.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 823 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEL: at least 12Actual: 7
Enosis: at least 15Actual: 18

Corners

AEL: at least 5Actual: 9
Enosis: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,488 of 5,327 predictions were correct (46.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEL score2.17

Attack: AEL score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Enosis concede 73% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Enosis score0.43

Attack: Enosis score below the league average (66% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEL's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–018.3%1–015.7%3–013.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.