1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Group - 28

Ethnikos Achna–Anorthosis

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

52'Ethnikos AchnaC. Giousis (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ethnikos Achna		Anorthosis
4	Shots	5
2	Shots on target	0
3	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
263	Passes	332
213	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ethnikos Achna 1.17 · Anorthosis 1.21. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Ethnikos Achna 4 · Anorthosis 5; on target 2 and 0.
Anorthosis kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Menelaos→

5.89

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.0%: “Anorthosis to win”. Second comes “Ethnikos Achna to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Ethnikos Achna, 1.21 for Anorthosis.
The highest double chance value is 70.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 819 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ethnikos Achna to win34.1%

Draw29.9%

Anorthosis to win36.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

25	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ethnikos Achna lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time46.4%

Anorthosis lead at half-time23.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ethnikos Achna ahead or level76.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Anorthosis ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 818 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ethnikos Achna: at least 14Actual: 25
Anorthosis: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Ethnikos Achna: at least 4Actual: 1
Anorthosis: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ethnikos Achna score1.17

Attack: Ethnikos Achna score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Anorthosis's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anorthosis score1.21

Attack: Anorthosis score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ethnikos Achna concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–110.3%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.