1. Division · Cyprus · Championship Group - 28

Omonia Nicosia–Pafos

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

11'Omonia NicosiaW. Semedo
20'Omonia NicosiaR. Mmaee

Match statistics

Match statistics
Omonia Nicosia		Pafos
10	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	0
5	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	5
33%	Possession	67%
288	Passes	539
217	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Nicosia 1.86 · Pafos 0.98. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Omonia Nicosia 10 · Pafos 5; on target 7 and 0.
Pafos kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

A. Treimanis→

6.05

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.1%: “Omonia Nicosia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Omonia Nicosia, 0.98 for Pafos.
The highest double chance value is 82.0% (1X — Omonia Nicosia win or draw).
These values were computed from 818 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Nicosia to win58.1%

Draw23.9%

Pafos to win18.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	13

6	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Omonia Nicosia win or draw82.0%

12 — any result other than a draw76.1%

X2 — draw or Pafos win41.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.9%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Omonia Nicosia lead at half-time32.4%

Level at half-time44.1%

Pafos lead at half-time23.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Nicosia ahead or level76.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Pafos ahead67.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 817 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Nicosia: at least 9Actual: 20
Pafos: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Omonia Nicosia: at least 4Actual: 2
Pafos: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Nicosia score1.86

Attack: Omonia Nicosia score 73% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.86 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Pafos score0.98

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Omonia Nicosia concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.98 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–111.0%2–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.