1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Group - 28

Enosis–Olympiakos

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

40'OlympiakosJean Felipe
84'OlympiakosV. Kovalenko
88'OlympiakosA. Bajrovic
90'EnosisD. Imeri (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Enosis		Olympiakos
3	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	3
1	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
31%	Possession	69%
223	Passes	556
167	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Enosis 0.64 · Olympiakos 1.52. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Enosis 3 · Olympiakos 10; on target 1 and 3.
Olympiakos kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

I. Christodoulou→

5.05

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.8%: “Olympiakos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.64 for Enosis, 1.52 for Olympiakos.
The highest double chance value is 85.8% (X2 — draw or Olympiakos win).
These values were computed from 818 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Enosis to win14.2%

Draw27.0%

Olympiakos to win58.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 252 of 585 predictions were correct (43.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Enosis win or draw41.2%

12 — any result other than a draw73.0%

X2 — draw or Olympiakos win85.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Enosis lead at half-time11.4%

Level at half-time43.8%

Olympiakos lead at half-time44.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Enosis ahead or level55.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Olympiakos ahead88.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 817 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Enosis: at least 13Actual: 16
Olympiakos: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Enosis: at least 3
Olympiakos: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (48.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Enosis score0.64

Attack: Enosis score below the league average (66% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olympiakos score1.52

Attack: Olympiakos score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Enosis concede 71% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–117.2%0–213.8%1–112.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 818 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 52 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.