1. Division · Cyprus · Championship Group - 27

AEK Larnaca–Apoel Nicosia

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

18'AEK LarnacaM. Rohden

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Larnaca		Apoel Nicosia
9	Shots	8
1	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	4
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	5
40%	Possession	60%
313	Passes	485
247	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Larnaca 1.60 · Apoel Nicosia 0.98. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AEK Larnaca 9 · Apoel Nicosia 8; on target 1 and 4.
Apoel Nicosia kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

D. Siebert→

4.63

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.6%: “AEK Larnaca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for AEK Larnaca, 0.98 for Apoel Nicosia.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — AEK Larnaca win or draw).
These values were computed from 817 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Larnaca to win51.6%

Draw26.7%

Apoel Nicosia to win21.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — AEK Larnaca win or draw78.3%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or Apoel Nicosia win48.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

AEK Larnaca lead at half-time41.2%

Level at half-time43.1%

Apoel Nicosia lead at half-time15.7%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Larnaca ahead or level84.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Apoel Nicosia ahead58.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 816 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Larnaca: at least 12Actual: 13
Apoel Nicosia: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

AEK Larnaca: at least 4Actual: 4
Apoel Nicosia: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Larnaca score1.60

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Apoel Nicosia concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.60 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Apoel Nicosia score0.98

Attack: Apoel Nicosia score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–011.3%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.