1. Division · Cyprus · Championship Group - 27

Pafos–Apollon Limassol

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

15'PafosD. Quina
35'Apollon LimassolI. Ljubic

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pafos		Apollon Limassol
6	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	1
3	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	8
2	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
324	Passes	376
251	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pafos 1.61 · Apollon Limassol 0.92. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Pafos 6 · Apollon Limassol 11; on target 3 and 1.
Apollon Limassol kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

G. Manganiello→

3.98

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.4%: “Pafos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Pafos, 0.92 for Apollon Limassol.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (1X — Pafos win or draw).
These values were computed from 816 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pafos to win53.4%

Draw26.6%

Apollon Limassol to win20.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Pafos win or draw79.9%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or Apollon Limassol win46.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Pafos lead at half-time37.9%

Level at half-time45.6%

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time16.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Pafos ahead or level83.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.4%

X2 — level or Apollon Limassol ahead62.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 815 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pafos: at least 13Actual: 11
Apollon Limassol: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Pafos: at least 5Actual: 2
Apollon Limassol: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pafos score1.61

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.61 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Apollon Limassol score0.92

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–012.1%2–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.