1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Group - 27

Krasava Ypsonas–Olympiakos

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

90'Krasava YpsonasJulio César

Match statistics

Match statistics
Krasava Ypsonas		Olympiakos
13	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	3
3	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
340	Passes	426
260	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Krasava Ypsonas 1.44 · Olympiakos 0.90. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Krasava Ypsonas 13 · Olympiakos 9; on target 1 and 2.

Referee

K. Fellas→

4.92

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.2%: “Krasava Ypsonas to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Krasava Ypsonas, 0.90 for Olympiakos.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Krasava Ypsonas win or draw).
These values were computed from 816 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Krasava Ypsonas to win49.2%

Draw28.6%

Olympiakos to win22.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Krasava Ypsonas win or draw77.7%

12 — any result other than a draw71.4%

X2 — draw or Olympiakos win50.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Krasava Ypsonas lead at half-time21.8%

Level at half-time47.1%

Olympiakos lead at half-time31.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Krasava Ypsonas ahead or level68.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.9%

X2 — level or Olympiakos ahead78.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 815 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Krasava Ypsonas: at least 13Actual: 16
Olympiakos: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

Krasava Ypsonas: at least 4Actual: 6
Olympiakos: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Krasava Ypsonas score1.44

Attack: Krasava Ypsonas score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olympiakos score0.90

Attack: Olympiakos score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Krasava Ypsonas's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–013.1%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.