1. Division · Cyprus · Relegation Group - 27

Omonia Aradippou–Enosis

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Friday, 20 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

3'EnosisA. Kozar
19'Omonia AradippouJ. Mouaddib
33'EnosisM. Charalampous

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Aradippou 2.05 · Enosis 0.42. On the pitch: 1-2.

Referee

K. Fotiou→

4.00

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.0%: “Omonia Aradippou to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.05 for Omonia Aradippou, 0.42 for Enosis.
The highest double chance value is 94.6% (1X — Omonia Aradippou win or draw).
These values were computed from 815 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Aradippou to win77.0%

Draw17.5%

Enosis to win5.4%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 774 of 960 predictions were correct (80.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Omonia Aradippou win or draw94.6%

12 — any result other than a draw82.5%

X2 — draw or Enosis win23.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Omonia Aradippou lead at half-time41.1%

Level at half-time46.1%

Enosis lead at half-time12.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Aradippou ahead or level87.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Enosis ahead58.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 814 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Aradippou: at least 12
Enosis: at least 14

Corners

Omonia Aradippou: at least 5
Enosis: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Aradippou score2.05

Attack: Omonia Aradippou score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Enosis concede 69% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Enosis score0.42

Attack: Enosis score below the league average (66% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Omonia Aradippou's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–018.7%1–017.0%3–012.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.