1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 25

Apoel Nicosia–Anorthosis

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 11%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

55'AnorthosisStefano Sensi (penalty)
90'AnorthosisRafa Lopes (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Apoel Nicosia		Anorthosis
14	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	2
3	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	9
10	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
529	Passes	331
440	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Apoel Nicosia 1.88 · Anorthosis 0.67. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Apoel Nicosia 14 · Anorthosis 5; on target 7 and 2.
Apoel Nicosia kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Konstantinidis→

4.80

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.9%: “Apoel Nicosia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.88 for Apoel Nicosia, 0.67 for Anorthosis.
The highest double chance value is 89.0% (1X — Apoel Nicosia win or draw).
These values were computed from 807 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Apoel Nicosia to win66.9%

Draw22.0%

Anorthosis to win11.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Apoel Nicosia lead at half-time38.2%

Level at half-time44.9%

Anorthosis lead at half-time16.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Apoel Nicosia ahead or level83.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Anorthosis ahead61.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 806 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Apoel Nicosia: at least 14Actual: 12
Anorthosis: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Apoel Nicosia: at least 5Actual: 10
Anorthosis: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Apoel Nicosia score1.88

Attack: Apoel Nicosia score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Anorthosis's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anorthosis score0.67

Attack: Anorthosis score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apoel Nicosia concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.4%1–014.2%1–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.