1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 25

Apollon Limassol–AEL

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'AELL. Singh
67'Apollon LimassolPedro Marques
69'Apollon LimassolB. Gaspar

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Apollon Limassol 1.65 · AEL 0.74. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

J. Karlsen→

3.15

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.4%: “Apollon Limassol to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Apollon Limassol, 0.74 for AEL.
The highest double chance value is 85.0% (1X — Apollon Limassol win or draw).
These values were computed from 805 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Apollon Limassol to win59.4%

Draw25.6%

AEL to win15.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time46.0%

Level at half-time42.1%

AEL lead at half-time11.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Apollon Limassol ahead or level88.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or AEL ahead54.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 804 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Apollon Limassol: at least 14
AEL: at least 12

Corners

Apollon Limassol: at least 4
AEL: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Apollon Limassol score1.65

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEL's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEL score0.74

Attack: AEL score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.7%2–012.9%1–112.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.