1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 25

Olympiakos–Ethnikos Achna

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'OlympiakosLeonidas Konomis
65'OlympiakosVieirinha
90'Ethnikos AchnaN. Giallouros

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos 1.33 · Ethnikos Achna 0.99. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

K. Fellas→

4.90

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “Olympiakos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Olympiakos, 0.99 for Ethnikos Achna.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (1X — Olympiakos win or draw).
These values were computed from 802 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos to win43.9%

Draw29.7%

Ethnikos Achna to win26.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Olympiakos win or draw73.6%

12 — any result other than a draw70.3%

X2 — draw or Ethnikos Achna win56.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Olympiakos lead at half-time35.9%

Level at half-time45.5%

Ethnikos Achna lead at half-time18.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos ahead or level81.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Ethnikos Achna ahead64.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 801 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos: at least 14
Ethnikos Achna: at least 13

Corners

Olympiakos: at least 5
Ethnikos Achna: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos score1.33

Attack: Olympiakos score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ethnikos Achna concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ethnikos Achna score0.99

Attack: Ethnikos Achna score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–012.4%0–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.