1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 24

AEK Larnaca–Olympiakos

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'OlympiakosJ. Tavares
49'AEK LarnacaE. Saborit

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Larnaca		Olympiakos
8	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	3
52%	Possession	48%
351	Passes	381
277	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Larnaca 2.11 · Olympiakos 0.51. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots AEK Larnaca 8 · Olympiakos 8; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

A. Menelaos→

6.83

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.6%: “AEK Larnaca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for AEK Larnaca, 0.51 for Olympiakos.
The highest double chance value is 93.4% (1X — AEK Larnaca win or draw).
These values were computed from 798 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Larnaca to win75.6%

Draw17.8%

Olympiakos to win6.6%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

AEK Larnaca lead at half-time53.2%

Level at half-time38.1%

Olympiakos lead at half-time8.7%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Larnaca ahead or level91.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.9%

X2 — level or Olympiakos ahead46.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 797 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Larnaca: at least 13Actual: 11
Olympiakos: at least 15Actual: 19

Corners

AEK Larnaca: at least 5Actual: 6
Olympiakos: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Larnaca score2.11

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olympiakos score0.51

Attack: Olympiakos score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–016.9%1–014.8%3–011.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.