1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 24

AEL–Apoel Nicosia

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'Apoel NicosiaD. Mancini
58'AELLéo Natel
59'Apoel NicosiaDavid Abagna
81'Apoel NicosiaS. Dražić
90'AELSergio Conceicao (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEL		Apoel Nicosia
15	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
400	Passes	350
316	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEL 0.91 · Apoel Nicosia 1.55. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots AEL 15 · Apoel Nicosia 11; on target 5 and 6.

Referee

H. Malheiro→

5.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.2%: “Apoel Nicosia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for AEL, 1.55 for Apoel Nicosia.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (X2 — draw or Apoel Nicosia win).
These values were computed from 795 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEL to win20.6%

Draw27.2%

Apoel Nicosia to win52.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

AEL lead at half-time24.9%

Level at half-time46.3%

Apoel Nicosia lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — AEL ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Apoel Nicosia ahead75.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 794 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEL: at least 13Actual: 12
Apoel Nicosia: at least 15Actual: 16

Corners

AEL: at least 4Actual: 8
Apoel Nicosia: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEL score0.91

Attack: AEL score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apoel Nicosia concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Apoel Nicosia score1.55

Attack: Apoel Nicosia score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: AEL's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%0–112.6%0–210.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.