1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 23

Olympiakos–Akritas

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'OlympiakosJoão Mário
59'AkritasK. Antoniou
68'AkritasCarlitos
76'AkritasJ. Romo

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos 1.34 · Akritas 0.88. On the pitch: 1-3.

Referee

N. Liotatis→

3.27

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Olympiakos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Olympiakos, 0.88 for Akritas.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (1X — Olympiakos win or draw).
These values were computed from 790 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos to win46.9%

Draw29.8%

Akritas to win23.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–0

Olympiakos lead at half-time40.5%

Level at half-time43.2%

Akritas lead at half-time16.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos ahead or level83.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Akritas ahead59.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 789 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos: at least 14
Akritas: at least 14

Corners

Olympiakos: at least 3
Akritas: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos score1.34

Attack: Olympiakos score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Akritas concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Akritas score0.88

Attack: Akritas score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–013.8%0–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.