1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 23

Pafos–Anorthosis

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

68'PafosJay Gorter · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pafos		Anorthosis
14	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	1
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
411	Passes	469
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pafos 1.96 · Anorthosis 0.64. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Pafos 14 · Anorthosis 6; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

I. Christodoulou→

5.15

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.2%: “Pafos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Pafos, 0.64 for Anorthosis.
The highest double chance value is 90.1% (1X — Pafos win or draw).
These values were computed from 790 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pafos to win69.2%

Draw20.8%

Anorthosis to win9.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 793 of 1,863 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Pafos win or draw90.1%

12 — any result other than a draw79.2%

X2 — draw or Anorthosis win30.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Pafos lead at half-time54.5%

Level at half-time38.1%

Anorthosis lead at half-time7.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Pafos ahead or level92.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.9%

X2 — level or Anorthosis ahead45.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 789 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pafos: at least 17Actual: 15
Anorthosis: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Pafos: at least 5Actual: 4
Anorthosis: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pafos score1.96

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Anorthosis's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anorthosis score0.64

Attack: Anorthosis score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.8%1–014.0%1–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 790 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 110 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.