1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 23

Enosis–AEL

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 20 February 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'AELT. Maseko
90'AELD. Paroutis

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Enosis 0.71 · AEL 1.50. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

M. Christoforou→

4.26

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.2%: “AEL to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.71 for Enosis, 1.50 for AEL.
The highest double chance value is 83.8% (X2 — draw or AEL win).
These values were computed from 787 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Enosis to win16.2%

Draw27.6%

AEL to win56.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Enosis win or draw43.8%

12 — any result other than a draw72.4%

X2 — draw or AEL win83.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Enosis lead at half-time14.9%

Level at half-time45.1%

AEL lead at half-time40.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Enosis ahead or level60.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or AEL ahead85.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 786 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Enosis: at least 14
AEL: at least 13

Corners

Enosis: at least 4
AEL: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Enosis score0.71

Attack: Enosis score below the league average (62% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEL's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEL score1.50

Attack: AEL score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Enosis concede 56% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–116.1%1–113.4%0–212.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.