1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 22

AEL–Pafos

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 February 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'PafosBruno

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEL		Pafos
15	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	3
49%	Possession	51%
382	Passes	406
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEL 0.94 · Pafos 1.65. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots AEL 15 · Pafos 6; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

A. Kyriakos→

8.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.0%: “Pafos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.94 for AEL, 1.65 for Pafos.
The highest double chance value is 80.1% (X2 — draw or Pafos win).
These values were computed from 786 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEL to win19.9%

Draw26.1%

Pafos to win54.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	24

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,613 of 7,009 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AEL win or draw46.0%

12 — any result other than a draw73.9%

X2 — draw or Pafos win80.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

AEL lead at half-time15.0%

Level at half-time43.3%

Pafos lead at half-time41.6%

First-half double chance

1X — AEL ahead or level58.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Pafos ahead85.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 785 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEL: at least 11Actual: 7
Pafos: at least 15Actual: 24

Corners

AEL: at least 4Actual: 3
Pafos: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,317 of 4,968 predictions were correct (46.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEL score0.94

Attack: AEL score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pafos score1.65

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: AEL's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%0–111.6%1–210.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 786 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 96 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.