1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 22

AEK Larnaca–Apollon Limassol

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'Apollon LimassolBrandon Thomas

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Larnaca		Apollon Limassol
15	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
506	Passes	339
415	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Larnaca 1.73 · Apollon Limassol 0.75. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots AEK Larnaca 15 · Apollon Limassol 12; on target 6 and 4.
AEK Larnaca kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

M. Christoforou→

4.29

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.0%: “AEK Larnaca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for AEK Larnaca, 0.75 for Apollon Limassol.
The highest double chance value is 85.5% (1X — AEK Larnaca win or draw).
These values were computed from 783 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Larnaca to win61.0%

Draw24.6%

Apollon Limassol to win14.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

AEK Larnaca lead at half-time41.6%

Level at half-time42.6%

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time15.9%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Larnaca ahead or level84.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Apollon Limassol ahead58.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 782 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Larnaca: at least 12Actual: 6
Apollon Limassol: at least 14Actual: 12

Corners

AEK Larnaca: at least 4Actual: 6
Apollon Limassol: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Larnaca score1.73

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.73 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Apollon Limassol score0.75

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.9%2–012.9%1–112.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.