La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Real Betis–Valencia

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 23 May 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín, Sevilla

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'Real BetisAntony (assist: Isco)
75'ValenciaR. Mir (assist: A. Almeida)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		Valencia
14	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	2
4	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
488	Passes	539
422	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 1.61 · Valencia 1.07. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Real Betis 14 · Valencia 9; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

Víctor García→

4.76

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “Real Betis to win”. Second comes “Valencia to win” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Real Betis, 1.30 for Valencia.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,130 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win50.1%

Draw24.4%

Valencia to win25.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Real Betis win or draw74.5%

12 — any result other than a draw75.6%

X2 — draw or Valencia win49.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Real Betis lead at half-time43.6%

Level at half-time40.1%

Valencia lead at half-time16.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Betis ahead or level83.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Valencia ahead56.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1130 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Betis: at least 11Actual: 8
Valencia: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Real Betis: at least 5Actual: 3
Valencia: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score1.61

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valencia score1.07

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–110.5%2–07.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1130 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 113 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.