1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 21

Apollon Limassol–Olympiakos

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'OlympiakosHenrique Gomes
41'OlympiakosMauricio · red card
45'Apollon LimassolBrandon Thomas
71'Apollon LimassolJaromír Zmrhal
84'Apollon LimassolGaetan Weissbeck

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Apollon Limassol 1.40 · Olympiakos 0.74. On the pitch: 3-1.

Referee

K. Fellas→

4.89

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.7%: “Apollon Limassol to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Apollon Limassol, 0.74 for Olympiakos.
The highest double chance value is 81.7% (1X — Apollon Limassol win or draw).
These values were computed from 775 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Apollon Limassol to win52.7%

Draw29.0%

Olympiakos to win18.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–1

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time38.6%

Level at half-time45.9%

Olympiakos lead at half-time15.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Apollon Limassol ahead or level84.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Olympiakos ahead61.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 774 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Apollon Limassol: at least 14
Olympiakos: at least 15

Corners

Apollon Limassol: at least 5
Olympiakos: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Apollon Limassol score1.40

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olympiakos score0.74

Attack: Olympiakos score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.0%1–114.0%2–011.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.