1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 21

Enosis–Ethnikos Achna

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'EnosisD. Solomou · red card
50'Ethnikos AchnaN. Andereggen
67'Ethnikos AchnaS. Solomou (own goal)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Enosis 0.83 · Ethnikos Achna 1.52. On the pitch: 0-2.

Referee

K. Athanassiou→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.5%: “Ethnikos Achna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.83 for Enosis, 1.52 for Ethnikos Achna.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (X2 — draw or Ethnikos Achna win).
These values were computed from 773 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Enosis to win19.0%

Draw27.5%

Ethnikos Achna to win53.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Enosis win or draw46.5%

12 — any result other than a draw72.5%

X2 — draw or Ethnikos Achna win81.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Enosis lead at half-time14.9%

Level at half-time44.7%

Ethnikos Achna lead at half-time40.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Enosis ahead or level59.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Ethnikos Achna ahead85.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 772 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Enosis: at least 12
Ethnikos Achna: at least 13

Corners

Enosis: at least 4
Ethnikos Achna: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Enosis score0.83

Attack: Enosis score below the league average (60% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ethnikos Achna concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ethnikos Achna score1.52

Attack: Ethnikos Achna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Enosis concede 56% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.8%1–113.8%0–211.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.